In a Quandry

I'm facing a plotting crisis in the next chapter. I might kill a minor character, or I might not. In order to move the plot forward, it's important that something dire happens. So, how dire should it be? 

Possibilities:
1. Kill the character
2. Give a protagonist a shock
3. Introduce a major player in the story

All are possible. All would work. Which is why I'm stuck. My advice to myself? Take some time, do some research, and then move on to what feels right. 

I have crossed the 37,664K Mark and have completed Chapter 13. That seems to be progress.